Yahoo! News Background of the attempted assassination of Prime Minister Iraq: Is the drone strike the work of pro-Iranian Shiite militias?Possibility of new intensifying conflict

On the 7th, the house of Prime Minister Mustafa Kadimi was attacked by a drone loaded with bombs in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq. Mr. Kadimi was not injured, and the Prime Minister's Office announced that "the assassination was unsuccessful." Although no statement has been made about the attack, it seems that the background of the attack is the intensification of the conflict between Prime Minister Kadimi and the Shiite militia supported by Iran, and this incident will intensify the new division and confusion in Iraq. It can be a turning point.

Hundreds of supporters of Iran-backed Shiite militias held a large-scale demonstration around the "Green Zone" in Baghdad, where government agencies and the prime minister's residence are located, on the 5th, two days before the attempted assassination. gone. Security forces clashed to eliminate demonstrators, and reports such as Al Jazeera killed two demonstrators and injured more than 100 in total.

The demonstrators are supporters of the "Conquest Union", a political organization created by the "People's Mobilization Force (PMF)", a coalition of Shiite militias organized to fight the "Islamic State" (IS) in 2014. The Conquest Union drastically reduced the number of seats from 48 before the election to 15 in the National Assembly (constant 329) election held on October 10. At the demonstration, he said, "There was an election fraud." It is said that Shiite organizations have vowed "vengeance" after security forces were dispatched to the protests and the deaths occurred.

The beginning of the conflict within Iraq's Shiites was a large-scale demonstration in October 2019 by young Shiites seeking to correct government corruption and injustice. Political turmoil occurred, including the resignation of the then prime minister. The demonstrators also included criticisms that Iran was supporting the PMF and intervening in Iraqi politics, and the Iranian consulates in the Shiite sanctuaries of Najaf and Karbala were attacked by the demonstrators. In response, PMF militias attacked demonstrators and abducted and assassinated demonstrators and journalists.

Prime Minister Kadimi was appointed in May 2020 to respond to the crisis as an independent faction that does not belong to any particular political organization in the turmoil of anti-government demonstrations and the Korona-ka. Although he is a former Shiite journalist, he was the head of Iraqi intelligence until just before he became prime minister. A month after taking office as his prime minister, he used special forces against terrorism under his command to detain more than a dozen Iraqi Hezbollah members on suspicion of being involved in an attack on US-related facilities. , With the support of young people and the Iraqi people.

Prime Minister Kadimi has shown a willingness to protect peaceful demonstrations, and in February 2021 uncovered a group of Shiite militia assassinations on suspicion of killing demonstration activists. Since the prime minister does not have a ruling party in the National Assembly, he tried to suppress the militia by using security forces and counter-terrorism special forces against the background of the people's desire for political reform and elimination of Iran's influence.

In May, he arrested a PMF executive on suspicion of being involved in the assassination of Iraqi activists and an attack on a US military base. However, confusion arose as Shiite militias besieged the Green Zone in search of the release of the cadres, while assassinating intelligence cadres. Two weeks later his executive was released on "insufficient evidence." Prime Minister Kadimi made a concession and was seen as a "victory" on the Shiite militia side.

This time, a military drone was used in the attack on Prime Minister Kadimi, but the first military drone was used in Iraq in mid-April this year for the U.S. military stationed at Erbil Airport in the Kurdistan region of northern Iraq. was. It is believed to have been provided by Iran to Iraq's Shiite militia, the same type used by Iran-backed Shiite organization Hoshi in its attacks on Saudi Arabia during the Yemeni Civil War.

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In Iraq, Iraqi Shi'a militia has been stationed since the U.S. military killed Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps' Foreign Operations Kudos Commander Sreymani and PMF Deputy Commander Muhandis at Baghdad Airport in January 2020. Attacks on the US military have continued. Deputy Commander Muhandis was originally the commander of the Iraqi Hezbollah militia organization, which has strong ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is believed that a smaller militia group is going to receive it.

Iraqi security sources reported that a military drone that had flown near the US embassy in the Green Zone of Baghdad was shot down by the US military air defense system earlier this June.

In the October National Assembly election, the Saddle faction, which was originally a Shiite organization of the first party and supports Prime Minister Kadimi, increased the number of seats from 54 seats before the election to 70 seats. Shiite religionist Muqtada al-Sadr, who leads the Saddle faction, is known to have called for an anti-American attack after the Iraq War and led the militia organization "Mahdi Army" to fight against the US Army.

Mr. Saddle is different from PMF by making an Iraqi nationalist claim that criticizes the interference of not only the United States but also neighboring countries such as Iran and Turkey. Combined with the significant reduction in seats by the pro-Iranian conquest coalition, which was competing for seats with the saddles before the general election, Iran's intervention and militia domineering among the Shiites, which make up more than half of Iraq's population. It became clear that the public opinion against it was widespread.

As far as we can see, the drone attack on the Prime Minister's Office, like the attacks on the US military and the US embassy, ​​has to be considered as possible by Shiite militias. If so, Iran and Shiite militias will also be in danger of the election results. On the contrary, Prime Minister Kadimi may take the opportunity of the election results and launch a new offensive using military and security forces against the militia organization supported by Iran.

Immediately after the attempted assassination of Kadimi, Mr. Saddle said on Twitter, "It is a terrorist act aimed at confusing Iraq, targeting the security and stability of Iraq. This spreads danger and foreign interference here and there. But Iraq's brave army and security forces will take control of the situation and save and strengthen Iraq. "

Mr. Saddle is currently heading the "Salaam (Peace) Army," a militia organization that succeeds the "Mahdi Army." Mr. Saddle's urgent reaction to the case suggests that if things get worse, he may defend Prime Minister Kadimi and move, and this attempted assassination of the Prime Minister could be a turning point in the worsening situation in Iraq. be.