The new, unnamed "hypersonic missile" launched by North Korea on January 5, 2022 flew 700 km in the horizontal direction according to the figures announced by North Korea, and according to the observation results from Japan, The maximum altitude is less than 50 km, and the number of Mach 6 is given by the observation from the South Korean side. (* Corrected because the announced numerical value of the Korean military has changed from Mach 5 or more to Mach 6)
This is the second time that North Korea has launched a hypersonic missile. . At this time, the flight distance did not reach 200 km, the maximum altitude was 30 km or less, and the speed was Mach 3.
In addition, both are classified as gliding missiles (hypersonic gliding missiles) that divert the propulsion rocket part of ballistic missiles as boosters.
Second test launch of hypersonic missile is a solid old design
The North Korean hypersonic missile was ``improved'' and ``evolved'' as the numbers improved in the second trial This is incorrect. The first and second hypersonic missiles have completely different warheads, and the second missile, which has improved numerical values, is technically older and degraded. In other words, it would be more correct to evaluate it as "we tried a design that is technically sound and difficult to fail."
See "Mobile Ballistic Missiles and Hypersonic Gliding Missiles" for details. A waverider-shaped glide warhead, which is similar to an aircraft, can generate higher lift than a conical glide warhead, which is similar to an artillery shell.
Mars 8 has more advanced glide warhead geometry
The new "Hypersonic Missile" and "Hwasong-8" were exhibited at the National Defense Exhibition "Self-Defense 2021" held in Pyongyang for 10 days from October 11, 2021 last year. You can see the difference in the shape of
The new "Hypersonic Missile" is a conical gliding warhead that is close to a mobile ballistic missile, while the "Mars 8" is a waverider-shaped gliding warhead that can be said to be a genuine hypersonic gliding missile. Mars 8 is more advanced technically.
Appropriate medium-range ballistic missile "Hwasong-12" with a range of 3700km
Both "Hwasong-8" and "Hypersonic Missile" are presumed to have diverted the medium-range ballistic missile "Hwasong-12" for the booster propulsion rocket part. Due to the larger and longer glide warhead, the fuel tank is shorter than the Mars 12.
Mars 12 has a track record of flying 3700km in the test launch on September 15, 2017. Mars 8 and hypersonic missiles have large and heavy gliding warheads and less fuel tanks in the propulsion rocket part, so their speed is lower, but instead they can gain range through gliding flight, so they have a waverider shape with particularly high gliding performance. If the Mars 8 is well designed, it should be able to aim at a range equal to or greater than that of the Mars 12.
In the actual test, however, the Mars 8 test-launched on September 28, 2021 had a range of 200km, and the hypersonic missile test-launched on January 5, 2022 flew only 700km. Both of them fly only short distances while carrying medium-range propulsion rockets.
Intentionally Suppressing Performance
Clearly, North Korea is testing a hypersonic glide missile with intentionally suppressing its capabilities. . It is said that the lofted trajectory cannot be selected for gliding missiles that fly at a lower altitude than ballistic missiles, and they wanted to avoid angering the United States by jumping over the Japanese archipelago when conducting a full-scale test of medium-range class. It is possible. If it is a liquid fuel type, range adjustment is easy.
In addition to the above reasons, I think it would be better to consider the possibility that "in order to conduct gliding tests in stages, the tests were initially conducted under simple and gentle conditions".
For example, the Mars 8 test-fired on September 28, 2021 is said to have only demonstrated Mach 3, but if there was a problem, it would not be a gliding warhead problem, but a Mars 12 diversion. It means that the propulsion rocket part stopped burning on the way. It's too slow compared to the size of the propulsion rocket. If the propulsion rocket was normal and the glide warhead had a problem and failed, the accident would have been in the form of a crash at a high speed, disturbing the attitude and crashing while rotating.
In that case, even the Mach 6 hypersonic missile that was tested on January 5, 2022 would be too late for a Mars 12 diversion booster. If it is a medium-range ballistic missile Hwasong 12, the speed at the end of combustion at full power should be about Mach 15. Even considering the heavier bullet and shorter fuel tank, if it only hits Mach 6, it's still too late.
Then, if we take the theory that North Korea's first hypersonic missile test "Hwasong-8 failed on September 28, 2021", then the second test "Hypersonic missile on January 5, 2022" We will have to take the theory that the sonic missile also failed in the test launch. But probably not.
There is a high possibility that the firing was stopped halfway through both tests (or less fuel was put in) to reduce the speed and test with a short range.
The ultimate goal is an ICBM-class long-range hypersonic glide missile
And North Korea's ultimate goal is a long-range polar missile that combines an ICBM-class range ballistic missile as a booster. It is to complete a supersonic glide missile and use it as a nuclear deterrent against the mainland United States.
North Korea does not need short-range hypersonic missiles, and the Iskander-type mobile short-range ballistic missiles will do just fine. Medium-range hypersonic missiles are also a low priority, and we may build them if we have the time.
Hypersonic missiles, which have just begun to be developed, have only a range of 200 km and 700 km, but after 10 years and 20 years of research, someday, a long-range nuclear warhead with a range of 10,000 km will be developed. It is a plan to get a supersonic glide missile.
Related: North Korea test-launched a new hypersonic glide missile and announced that it carried out a lateral maneuver (January 6, 2022)